Thanks for the info. However, this user has no deleted posts (I double checked their profile and added a p.deleted_at is null to my above query and am still seeing the same numbers. Our forum also has PM’s disabled, so I don’t think those would be messing with the numbers.
When looking at this user’s posts, they are all post_type = 1. I don’t know what exactly a post_type of 1 means yet, but all of his just seem to be normal posts.