Oops. Sorry.
Some of the posts you linked suggest that it’s very likely you’ll have such trouble.
There is a topic about how to move to a new server that I can no longer find. You mostly just rsync over your /var/discourse directory, install docker, and rebuild. You can save a bit of time not copying all of /var/discourse, but copying that will take much less time than waiting for an OS upgrade to fail. 
I like to go for the sure thing. At think point, I’ve almost spent as much time on this topic as the upgrade would have taken.
Good luck, which ever path you choose!