I'm not sure where all my space went

I checked the backup folder and there’s a handful of random files, the largest is 700MB dpkg.status.0 and then 6 (sequential) dpkg.status.1.gz at 200MB. Are these safe to delete? That doesn’t account for most of the space but that’s like 1.6GB which at least helps get closer to a backup…

Edit: ok so there was nothing in var/backups, but I did find one in var/discourse/shared/standalone/backups that wasn’t listed in my Admin cp, so I did get 6.5GB after nuking that

I installed ncdu and ran it, it says my biggest folder is 20GB and the rest almost nothing. So that’s 30GB missing somewhere not in var/discourse?

Outside of that I have a 2.2GB swapfile. So like 4GB including what’s in backups. There’s obviously some other random files, not counting those there’s 20GB unaccounted for

I guess I could take a snapshot, make block storage, move uploads then I’ll have 22GB. I’m just worried the space will keep perpetually disappearing and I can’t move anything else over to get more