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On Blender Artists we have about 4.2M posts and 250k pageviews per day. When we migrated to Discourse 1.5 years ago we started on a medium-sized VPS on Digital Ocean, but that didn’t cut it at all. We have since moved to a dedicated server we got at the Hetzner server auction (E5-1650V2 Xeon with 64GB of RAM and 2x 240GB SSD for about 60 Euros a month). We currently use about 50% of our RAM so the database is mostly cached and this machine performs very well.

I wouldn’t recommend a VPS for your forum size, you’ll most likely be upgrading very soon.