Even though you can’t set the URL, it is deterministic, since the URL is made up of the SHA1 hash of the file.
As long as you don’t change the file contents, it should end up at either
/uploads/<instance name>/original/1X/1764ca1c70c7f4f7f01da26e702639fd8cfe2bf4.jpeg
or
/uploads/<instance name>/original/2X/1/1764ca1c70c7f4f7f01da26e702639fd8cfe2bf4.jpeg
or
/uploads/<instance name>/original/3X/1/7/1764ca1c70c7f4f7f01da26e702639fd8cfe2bf4.jpeg
or
/uploads/<instance name>/original/4X/1/7/6/1764ca1c70c7f4f7f01da26e702639fd8cfe2bf4.jpeg
(and which one depends on the number of uploads you already have).