I think you need to know what’s causing the extra emails first. You could use the ‘Email Statistics’ query in the Data Explorer plugin to get a good idea of what’s causing the increase in numbers.
The query only gives you a previous period from the current date. You could either modify it to accept a date range or run it a few times for increasing periods and put the data into a spreadsheet to calculate the monthly stats.
I think, by default, email logs are only kept for 90 days so this will restrict how far back in the history you can reach.
Having a glance down your /admin/email/sent page may shed some more light on exactly what kind of emails may be generating the excess. I think if you’ve set any categories to be default watching that can sneak up on you, or possibly a change in activity summary frequency? You can also use the filters at the top to narrow the list down, particularly the ‘email type’: