Estimating required server capacity for a popular forum

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ljpp is planning to migrate a popular forum from SMF to Discourse, currently running on a 1GB Rackspace cloud server. The site has 1500 members, 100 super active users, and peaks at 500-800 concurrent sessions, with 100k page views per 24h. Traffic varies, with quiet periods during summer and spikes during playoffs or unexpected incidents.

ljpp also inquired about Discourse’s future-proofing for the next 10 years, citing the old forum’s decade-long run on SMF. wesochuck referenced the Discourse FAQ, stating that Discourse is designed for the next 10 years of the Internet.

sam suggested that estimating required server capacity is challenging and referenced a meta post discussing similar considerations. For ljpp’s scale, a 4GB Digital Ocean instance might be sufficient, but splitting the DB off to a separate instance could be beneficial.

GregoryMatthews asked if there’s a tutorial on putting the Discourse DB on its own instance, as suggested by sam.

I am planning to move a rather popular forum from SMF to Discourse. The site has been running very stable of a 1GB Rackspace cloud server, but now I am trying to figure out what would be the minimum requirements with this traffic for running Discourse at Digital Ocean.

Old stats in Finnish: Tappara.co

Members: 1500, with 100 being super active
Concurrent sessions: Can peak to 500-800 users online
Traffic: Potential for 100k page views per 24h
Posts: Thousands per month

This is a fan forum of an ice hockey club, so the traffic varies a lot. Quiet during the summer, but peaks at spring time during playoffs. Some unexpected incidents can occasionally cause spikes in traffic, without a pre-warning (big player transfers or unusual events in the game, causing strong emotional reactions).

So any estimate what Digital Ocean plan could take the heat? Site has a good reputation of staying online, and it must remain that way. There are competing forums out there where users will quickly jump to, if we fail to serve when things heat up.

Oh, btw - one question to @codinghorror and @sam : The old forum has been running on SMF for a decade. Is Discourse project future proof for the next 10 years?

From: https://www.discourse.org/faq/

Discourse is designed for the next 10 years of the Internet, so the minimum browser requirements are high

It is very hard to estimate … I tried to cover some of the considerations here:

At that scale possibly a 4GB instance at Digital Ocean will be enough, though you may prefer to get a couple and split the DB off.

Is there a tutorial on how to put the Discourse DB on its own Instance as you mention above?