Estimating required server capacity for a popular forum

Installation Hosting
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I am planning to move a rather popular forum from SMF to Discourse. The site has been running very stable of a 1GB Rackspace cloud server, but now I am trying to figure out what would be the minimum requirements with this traffic for running Discourse at Digital Ocean.

Old stats in Finnish: http://tappara.info/index.php?action=stats

Members: 1500, with 100 being super active
Concurrent sessions: Can peak to 500-800 users online
Traffic: Potential for 100k page views per 24h
Posts: Thousands per month

This is a fan forum of an ice hockey club, so the traffic varies a lot. Quiet during the summer, but peaks at spring time during playoffs. Some unexpected incidents can occasionally cause spikes in traffic, without a pre-warning (big player transfers or unusual events in the game, causing strong emotional reactions).

So any estimate what Digital Ocean plan could take the heat? Site has a good reputation of staying online, and it must remain that way. There are competing forums out there where users will quickly jump to, if we fail to serve when things heat up.

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Oh, btw - one question to @codinghorror and @sam : The old forum has been running on SMF for a decade. Is Discourse project future proof for the next 10 years?

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From: What is Discourse? | Discourse - Civilized Discussion

Discourse is designed for the next 10 years of the Internet, so the minimum browser requirements are high

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It is very hard to estimate … I tried to cover some of the considerations here:

At that scale possibly a 4GB instance at Digital Ocean will be enough, though you may prefer to get a couple and split the DB off.

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Is there a tutorial on how to put the Discourse DB on its own Instance as you mention above?