Or … (given you are nervous) … take a backup (in any case) and set up a whole new server and restore the backup, then repoint the domain to the new server once done.
The one big thing you will come across is there is a major Postgres Upgrade (to 18). If you build a new server you won’t have to deal with that upgrade process.
There is also a small risk that plugins or theme components you rely upon have not been maintained, especially if they are written by less active 3rd parties.
Nervousness is why experienced Discourse SA’s use a two container setup so you can bootstrap updates before committing them (though that won’t help as much when you have a big Postgres update, but they happen seldom)